Cooling: the new balance between energy demand and supply
A key trend in the World Energy Outlook 2025
As the latest World Energy Outlook¹ from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows, the geography of global energy demand is currently undergoing fundamental change. Over the past ten years the rise in consumption has stemmed mainly from regions with low or moderate levels of solar radiation. However, in the years to come, the opposite will be the case: 80% of global growth will be concentrated in regions with more than 4.5 kWh/m²/day of solar radiation – India, South-East Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. It is precisely these areas, which are most exposed to the sun, that experience the highest daytime temperatures. And this combination of factors is causing demand for air conditioning to skyrocket. As a result, cooling is set to become one of the key drivers of global growth in the electricity sector. In many emerging economies, around one-fifth of their increase in electricity consumption can be attributed to refrigeration. At the same time, these areas have the highest solar potential in the world, which presents both a challenge (to manage peak loads) and an opportunity (to be able to generate electricity using photovoltaics precisely when the most energy is required for cooling).
For the HVACR sector, this scenario points to a future that will be very different from the way things were:
- Demand for cooling will shift permanently towards markets with higher levels of solar radiation and more challenging climatic conditions.
- The efficiency and quality of the plants will be crucial to the stability of local electricity grids.
- The integration of cooling and solar energy will become a strategic capability rather than merely an option.
This sends a clear message that the physical climate is reshaping the energy landscape, and cooling is at the heart of this transformation. So, what will cooling look like in this new energy landscape?
This raises a number of questions: If the convergence of solar power and cooling becomes the new global standard, is it not inevitable that the technologies will change as well? Will some traditional solutions no longer have a place? Will the technologies which use heat or sunlight as a power source, and in which storage – be it thermal, electrical or hybrid – is a structural component, become increasingly important?
And above all: What role will European companies play in this upcoming landscape?
After this summer, this will no longer be an issue that only affects distant markets. It is also increasingly relevant to the European market.
It is a strategic question that’s worth asking today, now that the trends are beginning to emerge clearly.